I seem to have stumbled into a bit of a discussion about pupil progress appraisal targets without levels for PRP and only being half awake at the time I blithely responded that you can use Transition Matrices (TM). Well, you can but it’s a bit messy and not perfectly ideal – although I don’t know what would be at this exact moment in time!
We thrashed around with this last year because schools are now measured against the LOPs and it seems reasonable to suggest that all teachers in all subjects should contribute to the overall subject LOPs. We optimistically loosely agreed that our aspiration should be for all pupils to make 3 LOP so focused on a 4 LOP target. This meant breaking down – either by subject or group – the numbers/percentages with a particular KS2 entry point and then linking that to the TM to work out what number/percentage might be expected to make 4 LOP. A target could then be worked out for each teaching group.
For example, my group might break down as follows:
Number at entry point TM % Making 4 LOP No in this group =
6 x 5c 14 1
4 x 4a 26 2
4 x4b 23 1
So, 4 pupils – 25% -should make 4 LOP and this could then become my pupil progress target. Of course, the obvious point here is that the group size is statistically small but it suggests a reasonable target and should represent a portion of the subject target as suggested by TMs.
Mathematicians and statisticians you won’t be happy, I know. However, the way I see it, you can either agonise and hang wring or make the best of it and come up with something imperfect but workable.